Please note - this page has work previously completed within the Public Health Team.
If you are considering Modelling work to be undertaken please Contact Us
What is a model?
A model is basically a method to quantify effects of policy on health. It does this by:
Assessing and comparing the impact of alternative public health intervention
Enabling us to build different scenarios
Demonstrating the health consequences of decisions
Informing real decisions
In Wirral we currently use two forms of modelling - predictive modelling and simulation modelling.
Predictive modeling quantifies the effects of health initiatives and interventions on health outcomes such as mortality and the occurrence of disease. It can also estimate the benefits of clinical and health interventions and include information about cost effectiveness information.
Examples of use
Development and piloting of an approach to risk profiling to identify patients that are at risk of emergency admission
Population impact of clinical guidelines:
Simulation models are computerised processes that are designed to cope with a wide range of complex systems. They provide evidence about how to cope with random problems, as alternatives to learning by doing or empirical research. They also aim to develop corporate knowledge about how changes in service delivery in one sector affect health outcomes and performance.
Examples of use:
The achievement of 18 weeks referral to treatment times for a hospital:
Modelling the dementia pathway:
Wirral Burden of Disease Assessment
Wirral Burden of Disease Assessment (2009)