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Modelling



Please note - this page has work previously completed within the Public Health Team.

If you are considering Modelling work to be undertaken please Contact Us 

What is a model?

A model is basically a method to quantify effects of policy on health. It does this by:

  • Assessing and comparing the impact of alternative public health intervention

  • Enabling us to build different scenarios

  • Demonstrating the health consequences of decisions

  • Informing real decisions

In Wirral we currently use two forms of modelling - predictive modelling and simulation modelling.

Predictive Modelling

Predictive modeling quantifies the effects of health initiatives and interventions on health outcomes such as mortality and the occurrence of disease. It can also estimate the benefits of clinical and health interventions and include information about cost effectiveness information.

Examples of use

Development and piloting of an approach to risk profiling to identify patients that are at risk of emergency admission
http://info.wirral.nhs.uk/document_uploads/Modelling/Predictive%20Model%20_emergency%20admissions_%20v3.pdf

Population impact of clinical guidelines:
http://ukpmc.ac.uk/picrender.cgi?artid=20048&blobtype=pdf  

Cancer screening:
https://cisnet.flexkb.net/mp/pub/cisnet_breast_joint_profile.pdf#pagemode=bookmarks

Web tools:
http://www.phsim.man.ac.uk/


Simulation Modelling

Simulation models are computerised processes that are designed to cope with a wide range of complex systems. They provide evidence about how to cope with random problems, as alternatives to learning by doing or empirical research. They also aim to develop corporate knowledge about how changes in service delivery in one sector affect health outcomes and performance.

Examples of use:

The achievement of 18 weeks referral to treatment times for a hospital:
http://www.hospitalsimulation.info/index.html

Modelling the dementia pathway:
http://thewholesystem.co.uk/netsim/netsims/peter%20lacey/simple%5Fdementia%5Fmodel/ 

Wirral Burden of Disease Assessment

Wirral Burden of Disease Assessment (2009)